March Madness is back and I’m here to redeem myself after last year’s utter disaster of a bracket that I filled out. That monstrosity can be found here. 

After some consideration, I’ve come to the conclusion that I put too much thinking into the bracket, which led to my bracket going into the toilet in record time. I picked Auburn, Arizona, Kentucky and Gonzaga for the final four, none of which made it past the Sweet 16 Games. I used too many advanced statistics and measures, which can go out the window in March. In fact, I made one correct pick past the round of 32. In a pool with a couple of my high school friends, I finished dead last, 62 points behind first place. The good news is, I can’t do any worse than last March… Without further ado, the greatest tournament in American Sports.  

The South Region

Everybody and their mother is picking University of California-San Diego to upset Michigan, which is why I’m picking Michigan. I think UC-San Diego has become an overvalued asset, so I’m shorting them. 

The Wolverines are a well coached team, Dusty May could be one of the marquee names in college basketball in the near future. I think this is a trap game, in fact I think Michigan is so undervalued that the outside noise will be bulletin board material for Coach May and they’ll actually have a deep tournament run. 

Auburn’s recent bad form kinda scares me, not to the point where I think they’ll lose in round one, but they’re a team that I believe will crash out before they can make noise. 

Also, I would be remiss if I didn’t bring up the absolute atrocity that North Carolina made it into the first four over Indiana University and more shockingly West Virginia. West Virginia has wins against Iowa State, Arizona and Gonzaga, teams that made the tournament with ease. 

Jon Rothstein, CBS College Basketball Insider described North Carolina getting into the tournament, eloquently as “a miscarriage of justice of epic proportions.” Considering that North Carolina’s Athletic Director, Bubba Cunningham, is the chairman of the NCAA Men’s Basketball Selection Committee, there is an argument that some behind the scenes meddling is possible. Regardless of whether wrongdoing was done, West Virginia should feel rightfully slighted. 

In the Elite Eight, I’m predicting a Michigan Showdown, featuring the Michigan Wolverines and Michigan State Spartans. I think this would be an electric matchup and from a sports talking head standpoint, a gold mine. 

The West Region

St. John’s Basketball is the best story in college basketball, they have Madison Square Garden bumping every night. Head coach Rick Pitino, commonly mistaken for Michael Corleone in Francis Coppola’s The Godfather, has turned this program into a legitimate team that plays hard and defends the other team. They play a 1990s style of basketball, a ton of paint presence and mid-range jumpers and not much action beyond the three point line. With that being said, they are built to come back from a large deficit, so beware of that if you pick them. 

Florida is an excellent team, but their head coach, Todd Golden is still a bit young and inexperienced and doesn’t have a March Madness win under his belt quite yet. Regardless, I think the team is talented enough to make a run in the west region. 

The East Region

Duke is the best team in the country, from a talent perspective. Despite suffering an ankle injury right before the tournament, Cooper Flagg, freshman forward, will likely be back to 80% healthiness by the Elite Eight. Duke has enough talent to keep the team afloat until then.

The Wisconsin Badgers have been on a solid run, making it to the Big Ten title game, falling short to Michigan. One thing that stands out to be about Wisconsin is their free throw shooting percentage, at 82.6 percent. They lead the nation in that stat line and in March, hitting your free throws is key to winning. 

Alabama has a lot of scoring threats, as six players average 10+ points per game going into March. Mark Sears, senior guard, will be hoping to come back better after a disappointing game in the loss to Florida in the SEC Tournament.

If Wisconsin and Alabama reach the Sweet 16, I think it’s pretty close to a coin flip game, but ultimately, Wisconsin is a better defensive team and shoots a higher percentage from the line compared to Alabama, (71%) so I have Wisconsin playing Duke in the Elite Eight. 

The Midwest Region 

Houston is an excellent defensive team, as the one seed in the Midwest, but I think they’re a one and done team, falling to Gonzaga in the second round. I have some sort of affinity or some might say addiction to picking Gonzaga to do well in the tournament, because of their coaching and experience. Coach Mark Few has been there since 1999 and he’s been through some great runs in past tournaments. 

Clemson and McNeese is a fascinating game, especially since McNeese head coach Will Wade used to be a manager at Clemson, so he might have a bit of experience with their system. I think this is a probable 12 over five upset, so I have McNeese winning this one. 

Purdue getting a four seed this year is surprising, especially because their defense leaves a lot to be desired. However, High Point plays defense similar to that of the Washington Generals when they play the Globetrotters. If I were a betting man, I’d take the over and Purdue would win, because of their size. However, Purdue isn’t as talented as they were last season, and McNeese is a tough matchup for them, as they are an excellent defensive team and have won 11 in a row, which shows that they have momentum. 

In the Sweet 16, I have Kentucky and Tennessee in a close matchup, but ultimately, basketball is about getting stops on defense and Tennessee is a great defensive team and have won seven of their last eight, falling just short to Florida in the SEC Title Game. I’m picking Tennessee to the Elite Eight.   

Elite Eight 

In the South, I have Michigan topping Michigan State to reach the final four, while I have St. John’s beating Florida in a rock fight of a game, where St. John’s controls time of possession and forces Florida to think on offense. 

On the other side of the bracket, I have Duke beating Wisconsin, a la 2015, to close out the East. Looking towards the Midwest, I’m doubling down on Gonzaga to beat Tennessee, as I could see Tennessee struggling to keep up with Gonzaga’s high powered offense. 

Final Four

The Final Four will be a chalk pick, but these teams are too good and not seeing Cooper Flagg in the championship game would be sacrilege for hoop heads like myself. I think Duke and Gonzaga could be closer than expected, but Duke should handle them. 

Michigan vs St. John’s is like something out of a movie, Rick Pitino vs Dusty May, one legendary coach who passes the torch to a future coaching legend. However, I don’t see it that way, I think Pitino and St. John’s are destined to reach the title game. 

Championship Game

On paper, Duke is a significantly more talented all-around team and 99/100 times, the Blue Devils win handedly. However in March, anything could happen and there is always that one percent chance that the St. John’s Red Storm defense smothers Cooper Flagg and takes smart shots and doesn’t force the action. Besides, I cannot stomach picking Duke against the Godfather Rick Pitino. 

“Don’t ever take sides with anyone against the family.” – Michael Corleone in The Godfather Part II